Ductus diameter and left pulmonary artery end-diastolic velocity at 3 days of age predict the future need for surgical closure of patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants: A post-hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter study

Published:September 02, 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjcc.2021.08.007


      • No echo indices for early prediction of ductal surgery have been fully tested.
      • We conducted a post-hoc analysis using a database including 710 preterm infants.
      • This study identified the useful echo indices for early prediction of future ductal surgery.



      There is inconsistent evidence suggesting the clinical relevance of the early detection of future needs of preterm patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) surgery. We tested the hypothesis that echocardiographic indices at 3 days of age predict the future need for PDA surgery.


      We analyzed a database including the clinical and echocardiographic data of 710 preterm infants with gestational ages between 23 and 29 weeks in 34 Japanese neonatal intensive care units, and prospectively collected data over 14 months. The predictive or discriminative ability of each echocardiographic index at 3 days of age for future PDA surgical closure was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression analyses with adjustment for gestational age, sex, and small-for-gestational-age status, according to the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the models.


      A total of 688 eligible patients (median gestational age: 26 weeks, body weight at birth: 843 g) were analyzed, of whom 77 (11%) underwent PDA surgery (median age: 21 days) after full consideration of clinical conditions. The AUC of PDA diameter (PDAd) was the largest, followed by that of the left pulmonary artery end-diastolic velocity (LPAedv). Compared with the ratio of left atrial-to-aorta diameter (AUC 0.76), PDAd (AUC 0.84, p < 0.001) and LPAedv (AUC 0.82, p = 0.003) were significantly better predictors of future PDA surgery.


      Echocardiographic indices at 3 days of age, especially PDAd and LPAedv, may predict the future need for surgical closure of PDA in preterm infants.

      Graphical abstract


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